A risk-based decision support tool for evaluating aviation technology integration in the national airspace system

Commercial aviation, one of the most critical national and international modes of transport, is a highly complex, dynamic domain. From a systems perspective, there are numerous interrelated infrastructural components and stakeholders that challenge analytical modeling. Perhaps more than any other domain, aviation is typically on the forefront of developing and applying new technologies. The Aviation System Risk Model (ASRM) is a risk-based decision support system prototype designed to evaluate the impacts of new safety technologies/ interventions. The process utilizes an analytic generalization framework to develop an integrated approach to model the complex interactions of causal factors. Bayesian probability theory is being used for model quantification and Bayesian decision theory provides an analytical method to evaluate the possible impacts of new interventions. The entire process is supported by expert judgments. Subsequently, the analytical methodology is encoded as a Probabilistic Decision Support System (PDSS). The resultant PDSS is a riskinformed decision support tool that aids the evaluation of the possible relative impact of single as well as multiple technologies on aviation safety system risk. Presenting a maintenance-related accident scenario provides an illustration of the possible use of the PDSS.