TY - JOUR
T1 - Age-Structured Modeling of COVID-19 Epidemic in the USA, UAE and Algeria
AU - Bentout, Soufiane
AU - Tridane, Abdessamad
AU - Djilali, Salih
AU - Touaoula, Tarik Mohammed
N1 - Funding Information:
S. Bentout, S.Djilali, T.M.Touaoula are supported by the General Directorate of Scientific Research and Technological Development of Algeria . A. Tridane is supported by United Arab Emirates University .
Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 The Authors
PY - 2021/2
Y1 - 2021/2
N2 - As the COVID-19 is still spreading in more than 180 countries, according to WHO. There is a need to understand the dynamics of this infection and predict its the impact on the public health capacity. This work aims to forecast the progress of the disease in three countries from different continents: The United States of America, the United Arab Emirates and Algeria. The existing data shows that the fatality of the disease is high in elderly people and people with comorbidity. Therefore, we consider an age-structured model. Our model also takes into consider two main components of the COVID-19 (a) the number of Infected hospitalized people, therefore, we estimate the number of beds (acute and critical) needed (2) the possible infection of the healthcare personals (HCP). Hence, the model predict the peak time and the number of infectious cases at the peak before and after the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI), and we also compare this finding with case of full lockdown. Finally, we investigate the impact of the shortage of proper personal protective equipment (PPE) on the spread of the disease.
AB - As the COVID-19 is still spreading in more than 180 countries, according to WHO. There is a need to understand the dynamics of this infection and predict its the impact on the public health capacity. This work aims to forecast the progress of the disease in three countries from different continents: The United States of America, the United Arab Emirates and Algeria. The existing data shows that the fatality of the disease is high in elderly people and people with comorbidity. Therefore, we consider an age-structured model. Our model also takes into consider two main components of the COVID-19 (a) the number of Infected hospitalized people, therefore, we estimate the number of beds (acute and critical) needed (2) the possible infection of the healthcare personals (HCP). Hence, the model predict the peak time and the number of infectious cases at the peak before and after the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI), and we also compare this finding with case of full lockdown. Finally, we investigate the impact of the shortage of proper personal protective equipment (PPE) on the spread of the disease.
KW - Age-structured
KW - Basic reproduction number
KW - COVID-19
KW - Hospitals capacities
KW - Peak epidemic
KW - SIR model
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U2 - 10.1016/j.aej.2020.08.053
DO - 10.1016/j.aej.2020.08.053
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85091710957
SN - 1110-0168
VL - 60
SP - 401
EP - 411
JO - Alexandria Engineering Journal
JF - Alexandria Engineering Journal
IS - 1
ER -