Application of variance-based sensitivity analysis in modeling oil well productivity and injectivity

Quosay A. Ahmed, Hassan B. Nimir, Mohammed A. Ayoub, Mysara Eissa Mohyaldinn

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

7 Citations (Scopus)


Well intervention performed on oil or gas well often involves the injection of different stimulating fluids or chemical solutions that aims to increase the production rate. The main objective of this paper is to identify the effect of uncertainty in different variables and parameters used to quantify well productivity and injectivity. Monte Carlo simulation technique is used to develop probabilistic models for radial Darcy’s inflow on the one hand and near wellbore water-based chemical injection on the other hand. The probabilistic model is based on assigning probability density function for all variables and parameters used in the governing formulas. Variance-based sensitivity analysis (VBSA) was performed to quantify the contribution and the correlation between different model’s inputs and outputs. Results indicate that some rough assumptions for about 60% of injectivity model’s parameters and factors, i.e., value with considerable error/uncertainty, can still result in output with small standard deviation in comparison with other parameters. In Darcy’s law, the uncertainty in reservoir pressure value affects the calculated flow rate two times higher than the effect of the formation of permeability or produced fluid viscosity. At low drawdown condition, about 50% of Darcy’s flow variance is caused by the uncertainty in reservoir pressure input value. Throughout VBSA, it is also found that data accuracy of variables and parameters used in the injectivity model is not of importance as for formation permeability, injected fluid viscosity, pressure, and temperature of the injected fluid. Application of this methodology will focus on the cost of information needed by the decision makers and will save a lot of efforts and resources needed to apply confirmation tests or to validate different data sets.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)729-738
Number of pages10
JournalJournal of Petroleum Exploration and Production Technology
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - Feb 1 2020
Externally publishedYes


  • A probabilistic model
  • Monte Carlo simulation
  • Sensitivity analysis
  • Value of information
  • Well injectivity
  • Well productivity decision analysis

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology
  • General Energy


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