Are Exchange Rate Contagions Asymmetric? Evidence from Emerging Market Economies

Muhammad Abubakr Naeem, Zaheer Anwer, Sitara Karim, Aviral Kumar Tiwari

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In view of increasing importance of emerging market currencies in the global foreign exchange markets and the growing concerns regarding the vulnerability of these currencies to global crises, we assess the connectedness of 16 emerging currencies by employing asymmetric domains of time and frequency spanning March 2011 to January 2022. We first notice bidirectional interconnectedness (both positive and negative) among three clusters of sampled exchange rates. The currency contagions follow divergent directions during crisis periods. During US debt selling crisis, there is a short-run negative contagion pointing to the appreciation of currencies. Following the Chinese financial market crisis, emerging market currencies demonstrated devaluation. There is long-run positive contagion (devaluation) in response to European Debt Crisis, Russian Ruble Crisis, Brazilian economic crisis, and Argentinian monetary crisis. The sampled exchange rates demonstrate negative long-run connectedness (appreciation) after COVID-19. The major transmitters to total connectedness are South Africa, Poland, and Mexico and major receivers include Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, India, Indonesia, and Egypt. In the long run, China is emerging as a significant transmitter. Our study draws significant policy and practical implications for regulators, investors, and financial market participants.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)4107-4124
Number of pages18
JournalEmerging Markets Finance and Trade
Volume59
Issue number15
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2023

Keywords

  • asymmetric connectedness
  • B26
  • B27
  • B47
  • C22
  • currency contagions
  • Emerging economies
  • time and frequency spillovers

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Finance
  • General Economics,Econometrics and Finance

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