ARIMA-based time-series analysis for forecasting of COVID-19 cases in Egypt

Ibrahim Sabry; Abdel Hamid Ismail Mourad; Amir Hussain Idrisi; Mohamed ElWakil

doi:10.1504/IJSPM.2022.130292

ARIMA-based time-series analysis for forecasting of COVID-19 cases in Egypt

Ibrahim Sabry, Abdel Hamid Ismail Mourad, Amir Hussain Idrisi, Mohamed ElWakil

Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

A significant purpose of this study is to examine the distribution of COVID-19 in Egypt to develop an effective forecasting model. It can be used as a decision-making mechanism to administer health interventions and mitigate the transmission of contamination by COVID-19. By this definition, we developed a model and then used it to predict possible COVID-19 cases in Egypt. The analysis suggests a growth trajectory for the events in the days to come. Statistics based on time series analysis and kinetic model analysis indicate that the total case of COVID-19 pneumonia in mainland Egypt can hit 281,478 after a week (March 1, 2020, through July 31, 2021), and the number of simple regenerations can hit 12. Analysis of ARIMA (2, 1, 2) and (2, 1, 3) sequences shows increasing growth in the number of events.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	86-96
Number of pages	11
Journal	International Journal of Simulation and Process Modelling
Volume	19
Issue number	1-2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1504/IJSPM.2022.130292
Publication status	Published - 2022

Keywords

ARIMA
COVID-19
Egypt
auto-regressive integrated moving average
coronavirus
forecast
pandemic

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Modelling and Simulation
Computer Science Applications
Applied Mathematics

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Cite this

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abstract = "A significant purpose of this study is to examine the distribution of COVID-19 in Egypt to develop an effective forecasting model. It can be used as a decision-making mechanism to administer health interventions and mitigate the transmission of contamination by COVID-19. By this definition, we developed a model and then used it to predict possible COVID-19 cases in Egypt. The analysis suggests a growth trajectory for the events in the days to come. Statistics based on time series analysis and kinetic model analysis indicate that the total case of COVID-19 pneumonia in mainland Egypt can hit 281,478 after a week (March 1, 2020, through July 31, 2021), and the number of simple regenerations can hit 12. Analysis of ARIMA (2, 1, 2) and (2, 1, 3) sequences shows increasing growth in the number of events.",

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AU - ElWakil, Mohamed

PY - 2022

Y1 - 2022

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ARIMA-based time-series analysis for forecasting of COVID-19 cases in Egypt

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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