Border screening vs. community level disease control for infectious diseases: Timing and effectiveness

There have been many studies of the border screening using a simple math model or a statistical analysis to investigate the ineffectiveness of border screening during 2003 and 2009 pandemics. However, the use of border screening is still a controversial issue. It is due to focusing only on the functionality of border screening without considering the timing to use. In this paper, we attempt to qualitatively answer whether the use of border screening is a desirable action during a disease pandemic. Thus, a novel mathematical model with a transition probability of status change during flight and border screening is developed. A condition to check a timing of the border screening is established in terms of a lower bound of the basic reproduction number. If the lower bound is greater than one, which indicates a pandemic, then the border screening may not be effective and the disease persists. In this case, a community level control strategy should be conducted.