Climate change-induced species distribution modeling in hyper-arid ecosystems [version 1; peer review: Awaiting peer review]

Taoufik Saleh Ksiksi; K. Remya; Mohamed T. Mousa; Shima K. Al-Badi; Salama K. Al Kaabi; Shamsa M. Alameemi; Sanad M. Fereaa; Fatima E. Hassan

doi:10.12688/F1000RESEARCH.19540.1

Climate change-induced species distribution modeling in hyper-arid ecosystems [version 1; peer review: Awaiting peer review]

Taoufik Saleh Ksiksi, K. Remya, Mohamed T. Mousa, Shima K. Al-Badi, Salama K. Al Kaabi, Shamsa M. Alameemi, Sanad M. Fereaa, Fatima E. Hassan

Department of Biology

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: The impact of climate change on selected plant species from the hyper-arid landscape of United Arab Emirates (UAE) was assessed through modeling of their habitat suitability and distribution. Calotropis procera, Prosopis cineraria and Ziziphus spina-christi were used for this study. The specific objectives of this study were to identify the current and future (for 2050s and 2070s) suitable habitats distribution using MaxEnt, an Ecological Envelope Model. Methods: The adopted method consists of extraction of current and future bioclimatic variables together with their land use cover and elevation for the study area. MaxEnt species distribution model was then used to simulate the distribution of the selected species. The projections are simulated for the current date, the 2050s and 2070s using Community Climate System Model version 4 with representative concentration pathway RCP4.5. Results: The current distribution model of all three species evolved with a high suitable habitat towards the north eastern part of the country. For C. procera, an area of 1775 km² is modeled under highly suitable habitat for the current year, while it is expected to increase for both 2050s and 2070s. The current high suitability of P. cinararia was around an area of 1335 km² and the future projection revealed an increase of high suitability habitats. Z. spina-christi showed a potential area of 5083 km² under high suitability and it might increase in the future. Conclusions: Precipitation of coldest quarter (BIO19) had the maximum contribution for all the three species under investigation.

Original language	English
Article number	978
Journal	F1000Research
Volume	8
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.12688/F1000RESEARCH.19540.1
Publication status	Published - 2019

Keywords

Maxent model
Niche assessment
Species distribution models

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
Immunology and Microbiology(all)
Pharmacology, Toxicology and Pharmaceutics(all)

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10.12688/F1000RESEARCH.19540.1

Cite this

@article{2846fedd0565455b802eca6072cc8315,

title = "Climate change-induced species distribution modeling in hyper-arid ecosystems [version 1; peer review: Awaiting peer review]",

abstract = "Background: The impact of climate change on selected plant species from the hyper-arid landscape of United Arab Emirates (UAE) was assessed through modeling of their habitat suitability and distribution. Calotropis procera, Prosopis cineraria and Ziziphus spina-christi were used for this study. The specific objectives of this study were to identify the current and future (for 2050s and 2070s) suitable habitats distribution using MaxEnt, an Ecological Envelope Model. Methods: The adopted method consists of extraction of current and future bioclimatic variables together with their land use cover and elevation for the study area. MaxEnt species distribution model was then used to simulate the distribution of the selected species. The projections are simulated for the current date, the 2050s and 2070s using Community Climate System Model version 4 with representative concentration pathway RCP4.5. Results: The current distribution model of all three species evolved with a high suitable habitat towards the north eastern part of the country. For C. procera, an area of 1775 km2 is modeled under highly suitable habitat for the current year, while it is expected to increase for both 2050s and 2070s. The current high suitability of P. cinararia was around an area of 1335 km2 and the future projection revealed an increase of high suitability habitats. Z. spina-christi showed a potential area of 5083 km2 under high suitability and it might increase in the future. Conclusions: Precipitation of coldest quarter (BIO19) had the maximum contribution for all the three species under investigation.",

keywords = "Maxent model, Niche assessment, Species distribution models",

author = "Ksiksi, {Taoufik Saleh} and K. Remya and Mousa, {Mohamed T.} and Al-Badi, {Shima K.} and {Al Kaabi}, {Salama K.} and Alameemi, {Shamsa M.} and Fereaa, {Sanad M.} and Hassan, {Fatima E.}",

note = "Funding Information: This project was funded by UAE University (Project: 31S347) as part of the Summer Undergraduate Research Experience (SURE+). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2019 Ksiksi TS et al.",

year = "2019",

doi = "10.12688/F1000RESEARCH.19540.1",

language = "English",

volume = "8",

journal = "F1000Research",

issn = "2046-1402",

publisher = "F1000 Research Ltd.",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Climate change-induced species distribution modeling in hyper-arid ecosystems [version 1; peer review

T2 - Awaiting peer review]

AU - Ksiksi, Taoufik Saleh

AU - Remya, K.

AU - Mousa, Mohamed T.

AU - Al-Badi, Shima K.

AU - Al Kaabi, Salama K.

AU - Alameemi, Shamsa M.

AU - Fereaa, Sanad M.

AU - Hassan, Fatima E.

PY - 2019

Y1 - 2019

N2 - Background: The impact of climate change on selected plant species from the hyper-arid landscape of United Arab Emirates (UAE) was assessed through modeling of their habitat suitability and distribution. Calotropis procera, Prosopis cineraria and Ziziphus spina-christi were used for this study. The specific objectives of this study were to identify the current and future (for 2050s and 2070s) suitable habitats distribution using MaxEnt, an Ecological Envelope Model. Methods: The adopted method consists of extraction of current and future bioclimatic variables together with their land use cover and elevation for the study area. MaxEnt species distribution model was then used to simulate the distribution of the selected species. The projections are simulated for the current date, the 2050s and 2070s using Community Climate System Model version 4 with representative concentration pathway RCP4.5. Results: The current distribution model of all three species evolved with a high suitable habitat towards the north eastern part of the country. For C. procera, an area of 1775 km2 is modeled under highly suitable habitat for the current year, while it is expected to increase for both 2050s and 2070s. The current high suitability of P. cinararia was around an area of 1335 km2 and the future projection revealed an increase of high suitability habitats. Z. spina-christi showed a potential area of 5083 km2 under high suitability and it might increase in the future. Conclusions: Precipitation of coldest quarter (BIO19) had the maximum contribution for all the three species under investigation.

AB - Background: The impact of climate change on selected plant species from the hyper-arid landscape of United Arab Emirates (UAE) was assessed through modeling of their habitat suitability and distribution. Calotropis procera, Prosopis cineraria and Ziziphus spina-christi were used for this study. The specific objectives of this study were to identify the current and future (for 2050s and 2070s) suitable habitats distribution using MaxEnt, an Ecological Envelope Model. Methods: The adopted method consists of extraction of current and future bioclimatic variables together with their land use cover and elevation for the study area. MaxEnt species distribution model was then used to simulate the distribution of the selected species. The projections are simulated for the current date, the 2050s and 2070s using Community Climate System Model version 4 with representative concentration pathway RCP4.5. Results: The current distribution model of all three species evolved with a high suitable habitat towards the north eastern part of the country. For C. procera, an area of 1775 km2 is modeled under highly suitable habitat for the current year, while it is expected to increase for both 2050s and 2070s. The current high suitability of P. cinararia was around an area of 1335 km2 and the future projection revealed an increase of high suitability habitats. Z. spina-christi showed a potential area of 5083 km2 under high suitability and it might increase in the future. Conclusions: Precipitation of coldest quarter (BIO19) had the maximum contribution for all the three species under investigation.

KW - Maxent model

KW - Niche assessment

KW - Species distribution models

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U2 - 10.12688/F1000RESEARCH.19540.1

DO - 10.12688/F1000RESEARCH.19540.1

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85076430262

SN - 2046-1402

VL - 8

JO - F1000Research

JF - F1000Research

M1 - 978

ER -

Climate change-induced species distribution modeling in hyper-arid ecosystems [version 1; peer review: Awaiting peer review]

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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