COVID-19 epidemic in Libya

Amin Bredan, Omran Bakoush

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)


The first case of COVID-19 was identified in Libya on 24/3/2020, and about 2 months later, the number of reported COVID-19 cases started to increase notably. The outbreak was first prominent in the southern region (Sabha) and then spread to the western and eastern parts of Libya. By 24/12/2020, the reported total number of deaths from COVID-19 reached 1415. There seems to be no published data on the size of the epidemic in Libya. Here, we estimated the number of Libyans exposed to COVID-19 by using a COVID-19 mortality adjusted mathematical model for the spread of infectious diseases. We estimated that 14–20% of the Libyan population have been exposed to the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, the risk of spread of COVID-19 infections during the coming months is high, and a considerable number of Libyans, particularly the elderly and people with chronic diseases, should be protected against COVID-19 infection. This is particularly urgent in the light of unofficial reports that the relevant healthcare facilities are under extreme stress.

Original languageEnglish
Article number1871798
JournalLibyan Journal of Medicine
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 2021


  • COVID-19
  • Libya
  • epidemic spread
  • modeling

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General Medicine


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