Abstract
Public health science is increasingly focusing on understanding how COVID-19 spreads among humans. For the dynamics of COVID-19, we propose a stochastic epidemic model, with time-delays, Susceptible–Infected–Asymptomatic–Quarantined–Recovered (SIAQR). One global positive solution exists with probability one in the model. As a threshold condition of persistence and existence of an ergodic stationary distribution, we deduce a generalized stochastic threshold R0s<R0. To estimate the percentages of people who must be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity, least-squares approaches were used to estimate R0 from real observations in the UAE. Our results suggest that when R0>1, a proportion max(1−1/R0) of the population needs to be immunized/vaccinated during the pandemic wave. Numerical simulations show that the proposed stochastic delay differential model is consistent with the physical sensitivity and fluctuation of the real observations.
Original language | English |
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Article number | 104658 |
Journal | Results in Physics |
Volume | 28 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - Sept 2021 |
Keywords
- Coronavirus
- Mathematical modeling
- Stationary distribution
- Stochastic threshold
- Time-delays
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Physics and Astronomy(all)