Evaluation of policy scenarios for water resources planning and management in an arid region

Mohamed M. Mohamed, Walid El-Shorbagy, Mohamed I. Kizhisseri, Rezaul Chowdhury, Adrian McDonald

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

17 Citations (Scopus)


Study region: Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE) Study focus: Water demand in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi (EAD) has increased significantly over the last few decades. Hence, a main challenge for the EAD water policy makers is to develop long-term resilient water resources strategies. This study evaluates future water supply-demand condition in the EAD and identifies water management strategies that support a sustainable future. A dynamic water budget modelling framework is used to evaluate future water demand as affected by population growth, economic growth, proposed water related policies, consumption patterns, and climate change. The Abu Dhabi Dynamic Water Budget Model (ADWBM) is used to construct future water scenarios and assess the status of the EAD water system until 2050 in terms of water supply-demand balance. This study presents four suites of water scenarios, namely: Business as Usual (BAU), Policy First (PF), Sustainability by Conservation (SC), and Rainfall Enhanced Sustainability (RES) scenarios. New hydrological insights: Simulation results indicate that both SC and RES scenarios achieved balanced water budget without any shortage throughout the entire period until 2050. The RES scenario is recommended for adoption because of the reasonable and achievable proposed consumption reductions needed in the different demand sectors. The obtained results should be valuable for devising appropriate strategies to prevent potential future water shortages in the Emirate.

Original languageEnglish
Article number100758
JournalJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2020


  • Scenario analysis
  • Sustainability
  • Water conservation
  • Water policy
  • Water resources management

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Water Science and Technology
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)


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