Exploring the Dynamics of Equity and Cryptocurrency Markets: Fresh Evidence from the Russia–Ukraine War

This study investigates the dynamic connectedness between equity and cryptocurrency markets using the Granger Causality Network and the Wavelet Coherence approaches. Using time series data from July 2021 to January 2023, results indicate that the causality effect increased significantly after the outbreak of geopolitical conflict. Cryptocurrency markets are highly influenced and mutually more connected with equity markets after February 2022. Results also indicate that the causality is more important in European countries and steadily increased as the war progressed. Nevertheless, there is no distinct indication of contagion in China's market. Of greater interest, it is revealed that cryptocurrencies do not offer a "safe haven" advantage during the war, especially in North America and GCC countries. Cryptocurrency-equity markets are fully integrated and moved together for at least 5 months after the beginning of the war. Overall, this paper provides early insight into the use of cryptocurrencies by investors and reveals how equity and cryptocurrency markets co-move within countries. These results are further supported by an alternative Structural Vector Autoregression model. This study provides useful insights to investors, regulators, and policy-makers regarding portfolio management, hedging, and financial market stability.