TY - JOUR
T1 - Global and Temporal COVID-19 Risk Evaluation
AU - Arsalan, Mudassar
AU - Mubin, Omar
AU - Alnajjar, Fady
AU - Alsinglawi, Belal
AU - Zaki, Nazar
N1 - Funding Information:
This work was supported by the Research Office of the United Arab Emirates University.
Publisher Copyright:
© Copyright © 2020 Arsalan, Mubin, Alnajjar, Alsinglawi and Zaki.
PY - 2020/8/7
Y1 - 2020/8/7
N2 - The COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented crisis across the world, with many countries struggling with the pandemic. In order to understand how each country is impacted by the virus and assess the risk on a global scale we present a regression based analysis using two pre-existing indexes, namely the Inform and Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index, in conjunction with the number of elderly living in the population. Further we introduce a temporal layer in our modeling by incorporating the stringency level employed by each country over a period of 6 time intervals. Our results show that the indexes and level of stringency are not ideally suited for explaining variation in COVID-19 risk, however the ratio of elderly in the population is a stand out indicator in terms of its predictive power for mortality risk. In conclusion, we discuss how such modeling approaches can assist public health policy.
AB - The COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented crisis across the world, with many countries struggling with the pandemic. In order to understand how each country is impacted by the virus and assess the risk on a global scale we present a regression based analysis using two pre-existing indexes, namely the Inform and Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index, in conjunction with the number of elderly living in the population. Further we introduce a temporal layer in our modeling by incorporating the stringency level employed by each country over a period of 6 time intervals. Our results show that the indexes and level of stringency are not ideally suited for explaining variation in COVID-19 risk, however the ratio of elderly in the population is a stand out indicator in terms of its predictive power for mortality risk. In conclusion, we discuss how such modeling approaches can assist public health policy.
KW - COVID-19
KW - infectious disease vulnerability index
KW - inform index
KW - mortality risk evaluation
KW - public health
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U2 - 10.3389/fpubh.2020.00440
DO - 10.3389/fpubh.2020.00440
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85089842279
SN - 2296-2565
VL - 8
JO - Frontiers in Public Health
JF - Frontiers in Public Health
M1 - 440
ER -