TY - JOUR
T1 - Global incidence and mortality patterns of pedestrian road traffic injuries by sociodemographic index, with forecasting
T2 - Findings from the global burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors 2017 study
AU - Khan, Moien A.B.
AU - Grivna, Michal
AU - Nauman, Javaid
AU - Soteriades, Elpidoforos S.
AU - Cevik, Arif Alper
AU - Hashim, Muhammad Jawad
AU - Govender, Romona
AU - Azeezi, Salma Rashid Al
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
PY - 2020/3/2
Y1 - 2020/3/2
N2 - (1) Background: Pedestrian injuries (PIs) represent a significant proportion of road traffic injuries. Our aim was to investigate the incidence and mortality of PIs in different age groups and sociodemographic index (SDI) categories between 1990 and 2017. (2) Method: Estimates of age-standardized incidence and mortality along with trends of PIs by SDI levels were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease from 1990 to 2017. We also forecasted the trends across all the SDI categories until 2040 using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS Statistics for Windows, version 23.0, Chicago, IL, USA) time series expert modeler. (3) Results: Globally, the incidence of PIs increased by 3.31% (−9.94 to 16.56) in 2017 compared to 1990. Men have higher incidence of PIs than women. Forecasted incidence was 132.02 (127.37 to 136.66) per 100,000 population in 2020, 101.52 (65.99 to 137.05) in 2030, and reduced further to 71.02 (10.62 to 152.65) by 2040. Globally across all SDI categories, there was a decreasing trend in mortality due to PIs with the global estimated percentage reduction of 37.12% (−45.19 to −29.04). (4) Conclusions: The results show that PIs are still a burden for all SDI categories despite some variation. Although incidence and mortality are expected to decrease globally, some SDI categories and specific vulnerable age groups may require particular attention. Further studies addressing incidence and mortality patterns in vulnerable SDI categories are needed.
AB - (1) Background: Pedestrian injuries (PIs) represent a significant proportion of road traffic injuries. Our aim was to investigate the incidence and mortality of PIs in different age groups and sociodemographic index (SDI) categories between 1990 and 2017. (2) Method: Estimates of age-standardized incidence and mortality along with trends of PIs by SDI levels were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease from 1990 to 2017. We also forecasted the trends across all the SDI categories until 2040 using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS Statistics for Windows, version 23.0, Chicago, IL, USA) time series expert modeler. (3) Results: Globally, the incidence of PIs increased by 3.31% (−9.94 to 16.56) in 2017 compared to 1990. Men have higher incidence of PIs than women. Forecasted incidence was 132.02 (127.37 to 136.66) per 100,000 population in 2020, 101.52 (65.99 to 137.05) in 2030, and reduced further to 71.02 (10.62 to 152.65) by 2040. Globally across all SDI categories, there was a decreasing trend in mortality due to PIs with the global estimated percentage reduction of 37.12% (−45.19 to −29.04). (4) Conclusions: The results show that PIs are still a burden for all SDI categories despite some variation. Although incidence and mortality are expected to decrease globally, some SDI categories and specific vulnerable age groups may require particular attention. Further studies addressing incidence and mortality patterns in vulnerable SDI categories are needed.
KW - Economic loss
KW - Global burden
KW - Health indicators
KW - Health policy
KW - Healthcare system
KW - Pedestrians
KW - Public safety
KW - Road traffic injuries
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85082380853&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85082380853&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3390/ijerph17062135
DO - 10.3390/ijerph17062135
M3 - Article
C2 - 32210141
AN - SCOPUS:85082380853
SN - 1661-7827
VL - 17
JO - International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
JF - International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
IS - 6
M1 - 2135
ER -