Abstract
The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) may be introduced into a population through arrival passengers outside the host population. The development of mathematical models is used to forecast, evaluate, and attempt to control the spread of diseases. In this paper, a new epidemiological model with seven compartments that include passengers is constructed to describe the COVID-19 dynamic in Morocco. The most common parameter is the reproduction number R0 which determines whether a disease will die out or expand. The sensitivity analysis was applied to the model to discover which parameter has a high impact on R0 . The final size relation for the epidemic models was derived to find its relationship with the reproduction number. Some parameter values are es-timated by fitting the COVID-19 data in Morocco, which is considered from 2nd March to 19t h July 2020. Finally, we verified the importance of testing and awareness of the community to break the spread of Coronavirus disease.
Original language | English |
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Article number | 53 |
Journal | Communications in Mathematical Biology and Neuroscience |
Volume | 2021 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 2021 |
Keywords
- Basic reproduction number
- COVID-19
- Final size
- Mathematical model
- Sensitivity analysis
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- General Neuroscience
- General Biochemistry,Genetics and Molecular Biology
- Applied Mathematics