Mathematical modeling of covid-19 in morocco and the impact of controlling measures

Lahbib Benahmadi, Mustapha Lhous, Abdessamad Tridane

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) may be introduced into a population through arrival passengers outside the host population. The development of mathematical models is used to forecast, evaluate, and attempt to control the spread of diseases. In this paper, a new epidemiological model with seven compartments that include passengers is constructed to describe the COVID-19 dynamic in Morocco. The most common parameter is the reproduction number R0 which determines whether a disease will die out or expand. The sensitivity analysis was applied to the model to discover which parameter has a high impact on R0 . The final size relation for the epidemic models was derived to find its relationship with the reproduction number. Some parameter values are es-timated by fitting the COVID-19 data in Morocco, which is considered from 2nd March to 19t h July 2020. Finally, we verified the importance of testing and awareness of the community to break the spread of Coronavirus disease.

Original languageEnglish
Article number53
JournalCommunications in Mathematical Biology and Neuroscience
Volume2021
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2021

Keywords

  • Basic reproduction number
  • COVID-19
  • Final size
  • Mathematical model
  • Sensitivity analysis

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General Neuroscience
  • General Biochemistry,Genetics and Molecular Biology
  • Applied Mathematics

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