Modeling the imported malaria to north Africa and the absorption effect of the immigrants

As Malaria represents one of the major health burdens in Africa, there is a risk of reappearance of this vector-borne disease in malaria-free or low risk countries such as those in North Africa. One of the factors that can lead to this situation is the flow of sub-Saharan immigrants trying to reach Europe through North Africa. In this work, we investigate such a possibility via a mathematical model. We assume that the immigrant (non-locals) population has a carrying capacity that limits their numbers in the host country, and we study how they might contribute to the disease spread. Our analysis gave conditions of the persistence of the disease and showed that the non-local population could have a positive effect by reducing the spread of Malaria.