TY - JOUR
T1 - Population risk factors for covid-19 deaths in nigeria at sub-national level
AU - Hassan, Zubaida
AU - Hashim, Muhammad Jawad
AU - Khan, Gulfaraz
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020, African Field Epidemiology Network. All rights reserved.
PY - 2020
Y1 - 2020
N2 - Introduction: Nigeria is the most populous country in the African continent. The aim of this study was to analyze risk factors for COVID-19 prevalence and deaths in all 6 geopolitical regions and 37 States in Nigeria. Methods: we analyzed the data retrieved from various sources, including Nigeria CDC, Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics, Unicef-Nigeria multiple indicator cluster survey and the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington. We examined 4 clinical risk factors (prevalence of TB, HIV, smoking and BCG vaccination coverage) and 5 sociodemographic factors (age ≥65, population density, literacy rate, unemployment and GDP per capita). Multivariate modeling was conducted using generalized linear model. Results: our analysis showed that the incidence of confirmed COVID-19 cases differed widely across the 37 States, from 0.09 per 100,000 in Kogi to 83.7 in Lagos. However, more than 70% of confirmed cases were concentrated in just 7 States: Lagos, Abuja, Oyo, Kano, Edo, Rivers and Delta. Case mortality rate (CMR) also varied considerably, with Lagos, Abuja and Edo having CMR above 9 per million population. On bivariate analysis, higher CMR correlated positively with GDP (r=0.53) and to a lesser extent with TB (r=0.36) and population density (r=0.38). On multivariate analysis, which is more definitive, States with higher HIV prevalence and BCG coverage had lower CMR, while high GDP States had a greater CMR. Conclusion: this study indicates that COVID-19 has disproportionately affected certain States in Nigeria. Population susceptibility factors include higher economic development but not literacy or unemployment. Death rates were mildly lower in States with higher HIV prevalence and BCG vaccination coverage.
AB - Introduction: Nigeria is the most populous country in the African continent. The aim of this study was to analyze risk factors for COVID-19 prevalence and deaths in all 6 geopolitical regions and 37 States in Nigeria. Methods: we analyzed the data retrieved from various sources, including Nigeria CDC, Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics, Unicef-Nigeria multiple indicator cluster survey and the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington. We examined 4 clinical risk factors (prevalence of TB, HIV, smoking and BCG vaccination coverage) and 5 sociodemographic factors (age ≥65, population density, literacy rate, unemployment and GDP per capita). Multivariate modeling was conducted using generalized linear model. Results: our analysis showed that the incidence of confirmed COVID-19 cases differed widely across the 37 States, from 0.09 per 100,000 in Kogi to 83.7 in Lagos. However, more than 70% of confirmed cases were concentrated in just 7 States: Lagos, Abuja, Oyo, Kano, Edo, Rivers and Delta. Case mortality rate (CMR) also varied considerably, with Lagos, Abuja and Edo having CMR above 9 per million population. On bivariate analysis, higher CMR correlated positively with GDP (r=0.53) and to a lesser extent with TB (r=0.36) and population density (r=0.38). On multivariate analysis, which is more definitive, States with higher HIV prevalence and BCG coverage had lower CMR, while high GDP States had a greater CMR. Conclusion: this study indicates that COVID-19 has disproportionately affected certain States in Nigeria. Population susceptibility factors include higher economic development but not literacy or unemployment. Death rates were mildly lower in States with higher HIV prevalence and BCG vaccination coverage.
KW - Africa
KW - COVID-19
KW - Epidemiology
KW - Mortality
KW - Nigeria
KW - Risk factors
KW - SARS-CoV-2
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U2 - 10.11604/pamj.supp.2020.35.131.25258
DO - 10.11604/pamj.supp.2020.35.131.25258
M3 - Article
C2 - 33193946
AN - SCOPUS:85096275943
SN - 1937-8688
VL - 35
SP - 1
EP - 10
JO - Pan African Medical Journal
JF - Pan African Medical Journal
M1 - 131
ER -