From a cohort of female sex workers in Nairobi, Kenya, 163 women were observed to seroconvert to human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) and followed to study progression to HIV-I-related disease. The effect of several covariables on disease progression was studied using a Weibull proportional hazards model. The Weibull survival model was fitted to the observed incubation times. Estimates of the median duration to CDC stage IV-A and IV-C disease were 3.5 and 4.4 years, respectively. Condom use before seroconversion was associated with a reduced risk of CDC stage IV-A disease (relative risk =.64, P ≤.05). The incubation time of HIV-I-related disease is extremely short in this population.
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