Role of Vaccines in Controlling the Spread of COVID-19: A Fractional-Order Model

Isa Abdullahi Baba, Usa Wannasingha Humphries, Fathalla A. Rihan

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

14 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In this paper, we present a fractional-order mathematical model in the Caputo sense to investigate the significance of vaccines in controlling COVID-19. The Banach contraction mapping principle is used to prove the existence and uniqueness of the solution. Based on the magnitude of the basic reproduction number, we show that the model consists of two equilibrium solutions that are stable. The disease-free and endemic equilibrium points are locally stably when (Formula presented.) and (Formula presented.) respectively. We perform numerical simulations, with the significance of the vaccine clearly shown. The changes that occur due to the variation of the fractional order (Formula presented.) are also shown. The model has been validated by fitting it to four months of real COVID-19 infection data in Thailand. Predictions for a longer period are provided by the model, which provides a good fit for the data.

Original languageEnglish
Article number145
JournalVaccines
Volume11
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2023

Keywords

  • COVID-19
  • existence and uniqueness
  • fractional calculus
  • mathematical model
  • stability analysis
  • vaccine

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Immunology
  • Pharmacology
  • Drug Discovery
  • Infectious Diseases
  • Pharmacology (medical)

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