Soft computing techniques for forecasting of COVID-19 in Pakistan

Muhammad Naeem, Wali Khan Mashwani, Mohammad ABIAD, Habib Shah, Zardad Khan, Muhammad Aamir

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

8 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Novel Pandemic COVID-19 led globally to severe health barriers and financial issues in different parts of the world. The forecast on COVID-19 infections is significant. Demeanor vital data will help in executing policies to reduce the number of cases efficiently. Filtering techniques are appropriate for dynamic model structures as it provide reasonable estimates over the recursive Bayesian updates. Kalman Filters, used for controlling epidemics, are valuable in knowing contagious infections. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have generally been used for classification and forecasting problems. ANN models show an essential role in several successful applications of neural networks and are commonly used in economic and business studies. Long short-term memory (LSTM) model is one of the most popular technique used in time series analysis. This paper aims to forecast COVID-19 on the basis of ANN, KF, LSTM and SVM methods. We applied ANN, KF, LSTM and SVM for the COVID-19 data in Pakistan to find the number of deaths, confirm cases, and cases of recovery. The three methods were used for prediction, and the results showed the performance of LSTM to be better than that of ANN and KF method. ANN, KF, LSTM and SVM endorsed the COVID-19 data in closely all three scenarios. LSTM, ANN and KF followed the fluctuations of the original data and made close COVID-19 predictions. The results of the three methods helped significantly in the decision-making direction for short term strategies and in the control of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Original languageEnglish
JournalAlexandria Engineering Journal
DOIs
Publication statusAccepted/In press - 2022
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Confirm Cases
  • COVID-19
  • Deaths Cases
  • Forecasting
  • Kalman Filter
  • Neural Networks
  • Pakistan
  • Prediction
  • Recoveries

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General Engineering

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