Suitability of a transitional probability matrix model for catchment scale rainfall projections

R. K. Chowdhury, S. Beecham

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Projecting rainfall and water availability in a changing climate is a well researched area. Stochastic and dynamic downscaling techniques are both currently being used to develop rainfall projections from GCM model outputs. While most of these techniques are adequate for reproducing historical rainfall characteristics, a wide range of variability are generally observed in the generated rainfall projections. These lead to a wide range of variability and uncertainty in hydrological and water availability projections. In this paper, we describe how ensembles of daily rainfall data have been generated from 2035 to 2065 using a Transitional Probability Matrix (TPM) model (CRCCH, 2006) for two catchments located in the South Australian Mount Lofty region. These are the Aldgate Creek catchment (7.9 km2) and the Inverbrakie Creek catchment (8.4 km2). It was found that generated daily rainfalls reproduced well the historical rainfall characteristics for these two catchments. The generated replicates of rainfall from 2035 to 2065 were compared with the CSIRO Mk3 (A2 scenario) generated downscaled rainfall replicates. It was found that while the 50th percentile rainfall projections from both models were well matched, the variability of CSIRO Mk3 generated rainfalls was significantly high in comparision to the TPM model generated rainfalls.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication9th International Workshop on Precipitation in Urban Areas
Subtitle of host publicationUrban Challenges in Rainfall Analysis, UrbanRain 2012
PublisherETH Zurich
Pages233-239
Number of pages7
ISBN (Electronic)9783906031217
Publication statusPublished - 2017
Event9th International Workshop on Precipitation in Urban Areas: Urban Challenges in Rainfall Analysis, UrbanRain 2012 - St. Moritz, Switzerland
Duration: Dec 6 2012Dec 9 2012

Other

Other9th International Workshop on Precipitation in Urban Areas: Urban Challenges in Rainfall Analysis, UrbanRain 2012
Country/TerritorySwitzerland
CitySt. Moritz
Period12/6/1212/9/12

Keywords

  • Climate projection
  • Rainfall
  • Transitional probability matrix
  • Uncertainty

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Environmental Engineering

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