The landscape of conflict: IDPs, aid and land-use change in Darfur

This article examines spatial changes in production in the presence of civil conflict. A simple model predicts land abandonment which increases with proximity to insecurity, and welfare losses to rural land owners. The model also predicts that food aid can buffer the land-use change impacts generated by war. Spatial data on land use, violent events, displaced populations and aid from 2001-2007 corroborate these predictions in Darfur, Sudan. The results suggest large disruptions in short-term production, with abandonment of agriculture far from the cities, and intensification of land use on their periphery.